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Farmers face big ups and downs
Malvern conference packs a big punch
What is happening, and going to happen, to UK farming? Are farmers set to endure a bleak and difficult future with farm gate prices in long term decline while costs rise, or will the global food crisis result in a prosperity not seen for many decades?
 | Emeritus Professor David Hughes tells his Three Counties audience in Malvern the likely scenario for farmers in the coming years is somewhere between boom and bust |  | Professor Allan Buckwell from CLA explains how policy induced instability in agricultural markets looks likely to continue, even in an era of under-production, low stocks and shortages |
These fundamental questions were tackled at the Three Counties Agricultural Society's annual conference by two speakers with the highest qualifications - Profs David Hughes and Allan Buckwell, who on Nov 20th succeeded in informing and entertaining their large audience in the Severn Hall at the Three Counties Showground in Malvern. Introduced and chaired by Ben Gill from the NFU, whose own contribution provided a launch pad for the speakers, the conference provided delegates with some grains of comfort but all left with no illusions of the challenges ahead.
There are no quick fixes
In his introduction Ben Gill looked at the challenge of our one planet to live 'within its own resources' both in terms of energy and commodities, and believed there are no black and white solutions, no quick fixes. The demand for land and water will continue to increase, and technology, together with diplomacy and economics will need to find a solution. "What's the difference between a projection and a forecast?" he asked, and went on to say that simple projections of events (the assumption that the graph line will continue, that what happened yesterday will happen today, only more so) were too widely used in the more complex art of forecasting.Prof David Hughes believes current financial events are 'more than a blip but are far less than the end of the financial world as we know it'. Africa and the developing world are likely to find food supplies harder to obtain "we will be used to seeing the awful distended bellies of undernourished children on TV news". The world will begin to question the morality of agricultural energy - using crops for fuel instead of providing needed food.
Scoring oil suppliers
We live in an oil based economy, yet the counties we rely on for it's supply are hardly the ones we can trust. "These are the boys we are relying on for energy supplies - and what score would you give them for being on our side, honesty, reliability, stability? The largest exporter, Saudi, got his highest score of 6 or 7, Iran and Iraq were 2, Kuwait another 7, Venezuela 2, Russia, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Libya... all have political regimes alien to our own.Prof Hughes explained that the challenge to farmers was earning a premium in the supply chain dominated by a handful of major companies, and that this would best be addressed by producers creating bigger units by working together - something which, he acknowledged, has been said before over many decades, but that continues to be true.
Policies that make it harder for farming
Prof Buckwell, who is policy director at the CLA, believed that policy induced instability has been created in markets from the time of surpluses and production subsidies to the new era of under production, low stocks and shortages, consumer subsidies. His answer is to ask regulators such as the EU not to make things harder for efficient producers, not to block safe technology in farm chemicals and land use, to remove supply restrictions such as quotas and set aside, and to deal with price volatility. He wondered at the feasibility of environmental targets such as that of reducing agricultural emissions 80% by 2050.Farmers will need survival toolkits in the next decade as they have in the past. The need to know their production costs is essential, and they need to build collaborative businesses, and tools to close the R & D gap, and the energy gap, are further essentials.
Agricultural societies should take notice of the Three Counties Society and their organisation of this £5 evening conference - that packed a solid punch in terms of information and inspiration and represented real value for money for all who attended.
Michael Donovan
editor Practical Farm IDEAS www.farmideas.co.uk editor@farmideas.co.uk
Nov 22, 2008
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